黄金1—3月份整体回顾

　　1.以1月初市场预期美联储年内不加息为起点，国际黄金价格在一季度形成了“N”字形态；

　　2.美联储1月态度转鸽叠加2月份美国经济数据不弱构筑了黄金价格先扬后抑的走势；

　　3.在3月美联储超预期鸽派的影响下，波动过后的金价再次反弹；在经济数据对于负面冲击暂未强劲反馈的环境中，鸽派美联储增加了市场对于未来需求回落的预期，利率预期从不加息进入到了降息的空间；

　　但是整体上而言：供需预期会继续下行将在一定程度上带动库存周期的下降，通胀端的压力依然存在。

　　黄金今日分析

　　黄金从日线上来看，金价跌势在临近低位支撑区域后有放缓的迹象。不过从整体来看依旧偏疲软，MA均线整体走势依旧倾向下行，黄金依旧面临较强的下行风险。若金价今日收盘能够企稳在1290关口上方，则有望止跌回稳，下一步多头将冲击1300大关；若此关口失守，下一步空头将继续冲击1280关口支撑；

　　从4小时上来看，黄金短线震荡反弹，布林带有看涨迹象，不过预计整体的反弹空间将较为有限，上方布林带上轨及30日均线压制于1295附近，且近期强势美元指数依旧继续限制金价上涨力度。

　　个人观点：

　　1.黄金在非农之前将会维持空头趋势，至于非农将会奠定后市的黄金走势，所以目前高位轻仓空，低位多单顺势进场，阻力位1295—1300，支撑位1280—1285。

　　2.非农预计是利多的，至于中线布局和非农提前布局昨日都在文章中说过来，截至今日晚间，所有的布局都会在同一时刻统一进场。

　　3.还没来得及的跟上的朋友及时与我这边取得联系，机会是留给有准备的人，市场也在选择人。

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