美元指数高开低走，市场倾向更加进一步表明美联储偏向鸽派

　　1.美元指数在周一高开低走，亚市午盘后在风险货币表现强势，且市场押注美联储政策可能在之后进一步转鸽的背景下加速回落，回踩至97.10一线；

　　2.周末传出的国际贸易环境利多消息在周一这个第二季度首个交易日提振了亚洲股市，大宗商品市场随之走强，带动商品系货币走强，而避免美元买需则因此消退；

　　3.据了解：美国总统特朗普及其幕僚期间对美联储当前政策依旧不满，另外库德洛也曾今公开抱怨美联储“多加了两次息”，这使的年内美联储货币政策的进一步走向再趋微妙。

　　4.而市场情绪同时还因为更多经济数据的出炉在即而显得谨慎。此后，欧元区和美国PMI数据的消长变化，或将决定日内进一步的汇市走势方向

　　5.个人预测：美联储在2019年内再度加息的可能性又进一步减小。

　　短线分析

　　日线上黄金属于1324和1347的头肩顶弱势下跌形态节奏中，日线连阴后的极弱放量以及上周五的反弹上涨力度不大，均可以说明行情短期内延续弱势走势的可能。周五晚间行情反弹至1300位置遇阻下跌，日线上影线较长，上涨动能不足，因此后市继续看空做空。

　　黄金月线分析：金价多头受阻，跌势在所难免

　　刚刚过去的三月份，美联储等全球央行的利率决议都偏向鸽派，更是不断降低持有黄金的机会成本预期，金价一度升至1324.52附近，眼看要扭转1346-1280跌势，但是由于美元走强，再加上全球股市延续此前的涨势，也提升了风险偏好，最终金价收报1291.91附近，月线下跌1.60%；而且，技术面中线看空信号有所增强，黄金的新一轮跌势似乎已经重新启动。

　　任何事情都是存在风险的，但是每个投资在收益与风险并存的环境中走过来的，所以有些事情都看淡了，一定要记住的就是任何的风险只是一时的绊脚石，阻碍不了前进的脚步，路有千万条，但是适合你的只有一两条，机会和失望只是一念之间。

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